Teaching

Each student is expected to present a 5 minute data update at the beginning of the class. As mentioned on Blackboard, you may opt out of such presentations. You will need two calendars. The first is the one provided by the NY Fed and you can find it here You will also need the Market Watch Calendar here. You have free access to the latter through your free access to WSJ (See USC Library). We are interested in the following releases: (i) Initial Claims, (ii) CPI, (iii) the JOLTS report, (iv) The Employment Situation, (v) Personal Income and PCE Deflator, (vi) GDP releases and revisions, and (vii) FED DAY! When the FOMC meeting includes projections and the famous dot plot two students get to cover this update.

The Term project is a short paper accompanied with a presentation (PowerPoint or PDF) about a foreign country’s economy. You are expected to give a presentation about the economy from a long view and short view angles, and highlight a policy issue that is relevant. It is recommended that you collaborate with two or three colleagues on this. However, smaller teams will not be penalized. Each student is expected to write at least 700 words, at least one chart, and at least one table, and present for at most fot 5 minutes. See examples (right) of excellent presentations from previous semesters. Note: This is *not* an endorsement of the opinion of the presenters or the accuracy of the diagnosis, but rather an example of an excellent effort that warrants full points.

For policymakers, investors, and financial professionals, high-frequency economic indicators are essential for tracking real-time economic trends. Institutions that track these trends usually have their in-house models designed to filter the noise and extract meaningful signals about the state of the economy. By the end of this course, students will develop their own simple real-time economic tracking model.

Core Components of the Course:

• Macroeconomic Foundations – A deep understanding of key macro concepts.
• Monetary Policy Transmission – The channels through which policy impacts real and financial markets.
• Time-Series Econometrics – Practical application of statistical models to economic data.
• AI & Forecasting *(Exploratory)* – Examining the potential role of machine learning in economic forecasting.